Streamflow drought time series forecasting |
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| Authors: | Reza Modarres |
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| Institution: | (1) Natural Resources Faculty, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran |
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| Abstract: | Drought is considered to be an extreme climatic event causing significant damage both in the natural environment and in human
lives. Due to the important role of drought forecasting in water resources planning and management and the stochastic behavior
of drought, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is applied to the monthly streamflow
forecasting of the Zayandehrud River in western Isfahan province, Iran. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, four
drought thresholds including streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean, 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return period monthly drought
and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed a drought period with different
severity in the lead-time. This study also demonstrates the usefulness of SARIMA models in forecasting, water resources planning
and management. |
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| Keywords: | Hydrologic time series SARIMA model Drought Forecasting Threshold definition Zayandehrud River |
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