| 贵州望谟河流域径流量的延伸期预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 方荻,吴战平,白慧,等.贵州望谟河流域径流量的延伸期预报试验[J].高原山地气象研究,2019,39(4):81-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方荻 吴战平 白慧 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州省山地环境气候研究所,贵阳 550002; |
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| 基金项目： | 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室2019年度开放研究基金项目:基于CFSv2 预报产品和SWAT 水文模型耦合的望谟河流域洪水延伸期预报试验(SZKT201909)；国家重点科技支撑计划:西部山地突发性暴雨形成机理及预报理论方法研究(2018YFC1507200) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于极端天气事件导致灾害频发，为延长洪水预见期，以望谟河流域为例，利用DEM数字高程资料、土地利用数据、土壤数据、气象数据等驱动SWAT水文模型，对流域水文循环过程进行了模拟，并采用2016～2018年逐日和2010～2018年逐月望谟水文监测站实测径流数据进行了率定和验证。同时基于CFSv2模式，采用双线性插值法得到延伸期时段望谟站2019年6月1日起报的未来45d的降水预报产品，与实况数据作对比分析，并与SWAT模型耦合进行了延伸期时段的径流量耦合预报。结果表明:(1)望谟河流域日尺度模拟中，率定期确定系数R2和Nash-Sutcliffe系数NSE均为0.75，验证期R2=0.61，NSE=0.55，月尺度模拟中，率定期R2=0.85，NSE=0.81，验证期R2=0.80，NSE=0.74，无论日尺度或月尺度，百分比偏差PBIAS的绝对值均在5%以内，模拟效果较好，可满足应用要求；(2)以2019年6月1日为起报日得到的CFSv2未来10～45d降水数据，CFSv2降水预报过程与实况趋势总体一致，强降水过程时段偏差在1～3d左右，但日降水量级的预报值偏小，说明需对CFSv2模式产品进行系统误差订正。基于SWAT模型与CFSv2降水预报产品的径流量耦合预报在未来10～15d内的变化趋势与实测值一致，尤其在未来10d左右模拟趋势效果最好；(3)对比6月10～13日不同起报日的降水数据，4个起报时刻对于未来10d强降雨过程均有稳定的预报信号，以6月10日作为起报日的径流量耦合预报于提前10～20d效果较为稳定，但由于降水预报量级偏小，致使径流量的模拟量级也偏小。研究成果为延伸期时段水文气象耦合模式的洪水预报试验研究提供了参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 望谟河流域 SWAT模型 CFSv2 延伸期 耦合预报 径流量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-02 |
Extended-Range Assessment of Streamflow in Wangmo River Basin,Guizhou Province |
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| Institution: | 1. Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate,Guiyang 550002,China;2. Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002,China;3. College of Forestry,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China |
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| Abstract: | Disasters happened frequently due to extreme weather events in recent years.SWAT model was used to simulate the hydrological process on Wangmo River basin which was driven by DEM,land use and land cover data,soil data,meteorological data for prolonging flood forecasting period.Daily measured streamflow from 2016 to 2018 and monthly observed streamflow from 2010 to 2018 of Wangmo hydrological monitoring station was used for calibration and validation.Based on CFSv2,the precipitation forecast products of Wangmo station in the extended-range period of June 1st,2019 for the next 45 days were obtained using bilinear interpolation method,then compared and analysed with observed data.Coupled streamflow prediction in extended-range period were conducted using SWAT model and CFSv2.The results showed that:(1)During calibration period,the determination coefficients(R2)and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients(NSE)were 0.75 in the daily scale.In the validation period,R2 was 0.61 and NSE was 0.55.In the monthly scale,R2 was 0.85 and NSE was 0.81 during calibration period,with R2 was 0.85 and NSE was 0.74 over the validation period.Nevertheless,the absolute value of percentage deviation(PBIAS)was less than 5% in both daily scale and monthly scale.The simulation results explained that the simulation effect was contented and could be applied.(2)Taking June 1st,2019 as the starting date to get the precipitation data of CFSv2 in the next 10-45 days,the CFSv2 forecasting process of precipitation was consistent with the actual trend,where the time deviation of heavy precipitation process was about 1-3days.However,the forecasting value of daily precipitation level was too low,which indicated that the systematic error correction of CFSv2 products is urgently needed.Based on SWAT model and CFSv2 precipitation forecast products,the streamflow coupling forecast trend was consistent with the measurement in the next 10-15 days,especially in the next 10 days or so.(3)Comparing the precipitation data of different starting days from June 10th to June 13th,these four starting days have stable forecast signals for the next 10 days of heavy rainfall process.The effect of coupling forecast of streamflow with June 10th as the starting date is more stable 10~20 days in advance.However,due to the small scale of precipitation forecast,the simulated magnitude of streamflow is also small.The research provided a basic reference for the flood forecasting experiment of hydro-meteorological coupling model in extended-range period. |
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