Application of the value of nonlinear parameters H and Δ H in strong earthquake prediction |
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| Authors: | Pei-Yan Chen |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, 100081 Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the relation that the curves of nonlinear parameter H and its difference ΔH bear with strong earthquakes in North China has been studied. First, the RSH algorithm has been applied to the North China
region; the schemes of six quantitative prediction indexes have been studied in detail and then tested by tracing-back predictions.
The result shows that all the six prediction schemes are of certain prediction efficiency and have passed the test. Among
the six schemes, A and E are of the best effect, with correlation coefficients R of 0.47 and 0.48 respectively. We recommend these two schemes for practical use in prediction in the future. Furthermore,
the relation between the curve of ΔH (the difference of H) and strong earthquake has been studied. Based on the above results, the RSΔH algorithm that uses the
ΔH value to predict strong earthquake has been put forward and applied to predict strong earthquakes in North China. The correlation
coefficient R of tracing-back prediction by this method is 0.45; this means that this method is also of better prediction efficiency. A
combined application of these two algorithms has also been proposed. By the combined method, the time length spanned by false
predictions can be shortened and thus the R value can be raised.
Contribution No. 96A0033, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.
This project sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. |
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| Keywords: | R/S method Hurst index earthquake prediction nonlinearity |
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