| 时间序列分析在电离层短期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张伟,邱卫宁,王刘准,蒋健君.时间序列分析在电离层短期预报中的应用[J].测绘信息与工程,2014(4):10-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张伟 邱卫宁 王刘准 蒋健君 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学测绘学院;武汉大学灾害监测与防治研究中心; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41174010,41074025,41374011) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据IGS提供的2012年TEC数据,在得到TEC值残差序列的基础上,利用谱分析去掉周期项和Matlab工具箱去掉趋势项并采用平滑算法去噪后,对随机项进行时间序列分析。目前,电离层格网点的预报均建立在原始TEC上,阐述了采用差分后的TEC值进行预报的方法,以减少日变化周期项的影响。根据AR（p）模型预报的结果加上周期项和趋势项后,再加上前一天对应时段的TEC值与IGS发布的数据比较,结果表明,该方法利用短期IGS发布的TEC值进行电离层预报能取得较高的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 电离层 时间序列 谱分析 AR(p)模型 TEC短期预报 |
Application of Time Series Analysis in Short-Term Forecast of the Ionosphere |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Wei, QIU Weining, Wang Liuzhun, JIANG Jianjun(1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University; 2 Research Center of Hazard Monitoring and Prevention, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China ) |
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| Abstract: | According to theTECdatum provided by IGS in 2012,on the basis of the residuals of these TEC values,we uses pectral analysis to remove periodic term and remove trend term with Matlab toolbox,then we de-nois through smoothing algorithm. For random items,we analysze it with time series analysis. Currently,forecasts of ionospheric grid point is based on the original TEC values. This paper uses the differential values of the original TEC to forecast it,which reducing the impact of periodic term caused by diurnal variation.According to the predict result of AR（p）model,plusing periodic term and trend,together with the corresponding period of the previous day＇s TEC values,and comparison the above values with the corresponding period values published by IGS,the results show that：with the short-term release ionosphere TEC values of IGS to predict Ionospheric is feasiblea,which has a higher accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | ionosphere time series spectral analysis AR（p） model TEC short-term forecasting |
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