| 基于日尺度的非结冰期水面蒸发影响因素敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏光辉.基于日尺度的非结冰期水面蒸发影响因素敏感性分析[J].新疆气象,2012,6(4):60-63. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏光辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 水面蒸发量敏感因素的判断,对于干旱区水资源规划利用具有重要的指导意义。本文以新疆尉犁县为例,对水面蒸发量影响因素进行分析。文章首先采用偏最小二乘回归法建立了水面蒸发量模型,在此基础上运用偏导数法分析了水面蒸发量对各影响因素的敏感性。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归模型具有较高的精度,不仅能够定量预测水面蒸发量,而且能够从机理上解释各影响因素对蒸发量的影响；风速、温度、水汽压这三因素对水面蒸发量最为敏感。上述模型为研究干旱区水资源利用提供了一种新方法和新思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 水面蒸发量 气象因素 偏最小二乘回归 日尺度 干旱区 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/4/2011 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/4/20 0:00:00 |
Analysis on Sensitive Factors to Water Surface Evaporation During Non-freezing Period |
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| wei guang hui.Analysis on Sensitive Factors to Water Surface Evaporation During Non-freezing Period[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2012,6(4):60-63. |
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| Authors: | wei guang hui |
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| Abstract: | The judgement on sensitive factors to water surface evaporation is very important for water resources planning and utilization in arid areas. In this paper, it takes Yuli county as an example, analyzes the factors which affects water surface evaporation.First, paper establishes the water surface evaporation model based on partial least squares regression; second, analyzes the sensitivity of each factor by partial derivative method. The results show: partial least squares regression model has high accuracy, not only predict the water evaporation quantitatively, but also explain them from the mechanism of each factor on the impact of evaporation; wind speed, temperature and vapor pressure are the most sensitive factors. The model provides a new method and new ideas for the utilization of water resources in arid areas. |
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| Keywords: | water surface evaporation meteorological factors partial least squares regression daily scale arid areas |
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