| 基于引力模型的中德双边贸易现状及潜力评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俊玲,张玉泽,张晓青.基于引力模型的中德双边贸易现状及潜力评价[J].世界地理研究,2016(6):18-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俊玲 张玉泽 张晓青 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南,250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目(15BRK012)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 德国是中国在欧洲最大的贸易伙伴,研究中德双边贸易潜力对中德及时调整对外贸易战略、推进"一带一路"建设具有十分重要的理论价值与现实意义。首先利用双边贸易数据和贸易结合度指数分析中德双边贸易现状,继而用2014年37个主要国家的贸易数据,从两国GDP、人均GDP、两国首都之间距离、是否加入WTO和是否加入APEC五方面,运用EViews软件建立贸易引力模型对中德贸易发展潜力进行预测,得出以下结论:中德双边贸易规模较大,增长速度较快,贸易逐渐深化;中德商品结构有较强的互补性;德国对中国的贸易结合度正由弱变强,中国对德国的贸易结合度有减弱趋势;中德双边贸易潜力值在波动中增大,且大于1.2,属于"潜力再造型",贸易潜力已经得到充分发挥,上升空间狭小。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易 潜力 中国 德国 |
The current situation and potential evaluation of Sino-German bilateral trade based on gravity model |
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| Abstract: | Germany is China’s largest trading partner in Europe, studying the potential of bilateral trade between China and Germany has an important theo-retical value and practical significance to the timely adjustment of the for-eign trade strategy as well as to the construction of“One Belt and One Road”. First of all, this paper analyses the Sino-German bilateral trade situation via the use of bilateral trade data and trade integration index. Next,it eval-uates the potential development of Sino-German bilateral trade by applying E-Views to establish the trade gravity model, in which there are five aspects to be considered: GDP of both countries, per capita GDP, the distance between two capitals, and a member of WTO and APEC or not, along with the help of the trade data of 37 major countries in 2014. The conclusions are made: the bilat-eral trade is gradually deepening on a large scale with a rapid increase; the commodity structure in the two countries is strongly complementary; the degree of trade complementarity is changing in an increasing trend in Germany’s trade with China while it is deducing in China’s trade with Germany;Sino-German bi-lateral trade potential value increases in the process of fluctuation, the figure is greater than 1.2, which belongs to the type of “potential re-model-ing”, thus the trade potential has been brought into full play yet rises in a narrow space. |
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| Keywords: | trade potential China Germany gravity model |
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