| 赤峰大甸子水位预报方法效能及指标研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁风和.赤峰大甸子水位预报方法效能及指标研究[J].东北地震研究,2010(4):35-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁风和 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区地震局; |
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| 基金项目： | 2009年度震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务项目(2009020902)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文结合2009年度震情跟踪一般性合同制定向工作任务项目的部分内容,对赤峰大甸子井异常提取及特征研究的16种方法进行了映震能力、前兆效益水平和区域地震三要素分析研究。原始日均值、气压系数、复相关系数、从属函数和异常频次累加等方法的映震能力R值超过0.7,异常主要以超2倍方差的突跳加剧和破年变特征为主;从属函数、变化率、变差法、异常频次累加和相对均方差分析等方法的前兆效益水平Q值相对较高,具有一定预测意义;利用大甸子井16种异常提取指标异常持续时间进行中强地震发震时间的预报,异常持续半年内发震的概率很高,该井400Km左右范围内未来发震震级一般为5～6级,NW向是未来5～6级地震发生的优势分布方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 预报效能 指标 大甸子水位 |
CHIFENG DADIANZI WATER LEVEL FORECAST METHOD POTENCY AND INDEX RESEARCH |
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| DING Feng-he.CHIFENG DADIANZI WATER LEVEL FORECAST METHOD POTENCY AND INDEX RESEARCH[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2010(4):35-40. |
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| Authors: | DING Feng-he |
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| Institution: | DING Feng-he (Earthquake Administration of Inner Mongolia,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Hohhot 010010,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the partial contents of the seismologic track in the general contract formulation duty project,16 methods of extracting the anomalies of Dadianzi well in Chifeng and researching the characteristics were analyzed from three aspects,which are the earthquake reflecting ability,the precursor benefit level and the three elements of earthquake.All the earthquake reflecting ability R value surpass 0.7,which included the primitive daily mean value,the coefficient of the atmospheric pressure,the duplica... |
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| Keywords: | forecast potency index Dadianzi water level |
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