| 汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 晏锐,蒋长胜,张浪平.汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(7):1817-1826. |
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| 作者姓名： | 晏锐 蒋长胜 张浪平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震台网中心,北京 100045;
2. 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081;
3. 中国地震局预测研究所,北京 100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局监测预报司震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来,临界慢化(Critical slowing down)现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力.本文基于临界慢化的概念,将其用于水氡浓度观测资料的处理,以2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带破裂段及附近地区水氡浓度观测点资料为例,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数和方差.结果...
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| 关 键 词： | 汶川8.0级地震 水氡浓度 临界慢化 地震预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-07-27 |
Study on critical slowing down phenomenon of radon concentrations in water before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake |
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| YAN Rui,JIANG Chang-Sheng,ZHANG Lang-Ping.Study on critical slowing down phenomenon of radon concentrations in water before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2011,54(7):1817-1826. |
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| Authors: | YAN Rui JIANG Chang-Sheng ZHANG Lang-Ping |
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| Institution: | 1. China Earthquake Network Center, Beijing 100045, China;
2. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China;
3. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon have shown great potentials on the aspects of disclosing whether or not a complex dynamic system is tend to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of radon concentrations in water were processed in this article. Take radon concentration observation data at Longmen Mountain fault zone and nearby regions before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 as an example, the autocorrelation coefficients and variances which can characterize critical slowing down have been calculated separately. The result indicated that radon data at different station had obviously critical slowing down phenomenon before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake, which indicated that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for strong earthquakes. The introduction and study on critical slowing down theory into precursory data processing have practical significances and important scientific values to thoroughly understand precursor mechanism, to determine the stage of precursory anomalies and to enhance earthquake prediction level. |
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| Keywords: | The Wenchuan MS8 0 earthquake Radon concentrations in water Critical slowing down Earthquake prediction |
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