Mutual relationships in neighborhood socioeconomic change |
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| Authors: | Elizabeth C Delmelle Jean-Claude Thill |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 9201 University City Blvd., Charlotte, NC 28223, USAedelmell@uncc.edu;3. Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 9201 University City Blvd., Charlotte, NC 28223, USA |
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| Abstract: | In this article, we investigate the factors that lead to changes in the socioeconomic complexion of urban neighborhoods along four critical dimensions: crime, youth social distress, home ownership, and economic conditions. We argue that the dynamics of these dimensions are better apprehended simultaneously considering their potential mutual relationships and we propose a cross-lagged panel model approach within a structural equation modeling framework. Neighborhoods in Charlotte, North Carolina, are used as a case study, and change is modeled at several time lags throughout the 2000–2010 decade. Findings indicate that the model performs well and that it offers a very promising avenue for modeling the socioeconomic changes of neighborhoods that accounts for complex longitudinal effects as well as spatial dependencies. Specifically, it shows that lower human capital manifested by a decline in youth indicators is significant in explaining subsequent increases in crime and declines in economic indicators. Also, the predominance of housing stock constructed in the 1950s and 1960s is a significant trigger of declines across all neighborhood indicators. Finally, spatial spillover effects between neighborhoods are found to be short-lived and dissipate after a few years. |
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| Keywords: | neighborhood change socioeconomic indicators human capital Charlotte North Carolina panel model |
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