Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties |
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| Institution: | 1. UMR CECI 5318, CNRS–CERFACS, Toulouse, France;2. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;3. UR RECOVER, IRSTEA, Aix-en-Provence, France;4. EDF DTG, Grenoble, France |
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| Abstract: | This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Impacts France Regional hydrology Hydrological cycle changes |
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