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Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: Fundamental challenges for mapping unknown outcome spaces |
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| Authors: | Dawn C Parker Amy Hessl |
| Institution: | a Department Environmental Science and Policy and Center for Social Complexity, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6B2 Fairfax, VA 22030, United States b Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University, Box 6300 Morgantown, WV 26505, United States c Department of Biology, West Virginia University, Box 6057 Morgantown, WV 26506, United States |
| Abstract: | Land-use systems are characterized by complex interactions between human decision-makers and their biophysical environment. Mismatches between the scale of human drivers and the impacts of human decisions potentially threaten the ecological sustainability of these systems. This article reviews sources of complexity in land-use systems, moving from the human decision level to human interactions to effects over space, time and scale. Selected challenges in modeling such systems and potential resolutions are discussed, including strategies to empiricize complex models and methods for linking models across human and natural systems. Illustrative examples from published literature and an ongoing research project focused on timber harvest and carbon sequestration are used throughout the paper. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of remaining challenges to modeling indirect and cross-scale linkages and of the potential utility of complex models of land systems. |
| Keywords: | Land-use change Land-use modeling Complexity Decision making West Virginia Carbon sequestration |
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