| 矿产预测评价中不确定性传播模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 左仁广,夏庆霖.矿产预测评价中不确定性传播模型[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(4):1282-1285. |
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| 作者姓名： | 左仁广 夏庆霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 地质过程与矿产资源国家重点实验室,中国地质大学(武汉),武汉430074;中国地质大学(武汉)资源学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国矿产潜力预测评价一矿产资源定量化预测新方法研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 矿产预测与评价是是由多个阶段组成的系统工程,包括数据收集,资料整理,信息提取,信息综合,预测评价、成果表达等.由于地质的复杂性和变化多样性及人类认识的不完备性致使矿产预测与评价的每一个阶段都包含了一定的不确定性,且前一阶段的不确定性会传播给后一阶段,从而导致相当数量的不确定性积累与传播.本文简要分析了矿产预测与评价不确定性的主要来源,给出矿产预测与评价的不确定性表达模型,研究了矿产预测与评价不确定性的合成算法和传播算法.
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| 关 键 词： | 矿产预测评价 不确定性 表达模型 传播模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-4-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-6-20 |
The uncertainty propagation model in mineral resources predication |
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| ZUO Ren-guang,XIA Qing-lin.The uncertainty propagation model in mineral resources predication[J].Progress in Geophysics,2008,23(4):1282-1285. |
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| Authors: | ZUO Ren-guang XIA Qing-lin |
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| Abstract: | Mineral resource prediction and assessment (MRPA) is a systemic project, which consists of collecting data, extracting information, integrating information, and so on, in which each stage contains some uncertainty due to the variability and complexity of geological objects and the incompletely of human knowledge, and the uncertainty in previous stage can be transferred to the subsequent stage, resulting in that the results of MRPA have high uncertainty. In this paper, the main sources of uncertainty are investigated and on expression model and the propagation model of the uncertainty are constructed. |
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| Keywords: | mineral resources prediction and assessment uncertainty expression model propagation Model |
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