| A PRELIMINARY SIMULATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF CI-IANGJIANG RIVER AND WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION ON THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN |
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| 作者姓名： | Wang Futang Wang Shili Li Yuxiang Zhong Meina |
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| 作者单位： | Academy of Meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration，Beijing，Academy of Meteorological Science，State Meteorological Administration，Beijing，Hunan Research Institute of Meteorological Science，Changsha，Hunan Research Institute of Meteorological Science，Changsha |
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| 摘 要： | In this paper,based on the analysis of the variation of effective accumulated temperature and precipita-tion in the last 100 years,together with the potential impacts of greenhouse effects on the climate in Chinasimulated with the current major climatic models(GFDL,GISS,NCAR,OSU and UKMO),the impacts ofclimate change on rice in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River and winter wheat production on theHuang-Huai-Hai Plain~* are simulated with the available weather-yield statistic models on the assumption that te-mperature variation ranges 1—4℃ and precipitation variation ranges ±10—20%.The result is that under thecurrent planting systems and agrotechniques,the impact of climate change on wheat production is more signifi-cant than that on rice;the climatic conditions of agricultural production in the north of China will become morefavourable while those in the south of the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River remain the same;butthose in the southern part of North China and the basins between Changjiang River and Haihe River are ratherunstable.In general,it is difficult to reach the conclusion that advantages or disadvantages dominate in suchclimate changes because of uncertainties.
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| 收稿时间： | 1990/9/19 0:00:00 |
A PRELIMINARY SIMULATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF CI-IANGJIANG RIVER AND WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION ON THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN |
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| Wang Futang,Wang Shili,Li Yuxiang,Zhong Meina.A PRELIMINARY SIMULATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF CI-IANGJIANG RIVER AND WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION ON THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1991,5(5):649-656. |
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| Authors: | Wang Futang Wang Shili Li Yuxiang and Zhong Meina |
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| Institution: | Academy of Meteorological Science, State Meteorological Administration, Beijing;Academy of Meteorological Science, State Meteorological Administration, Beijing;Hunan Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Changsha;Hunan Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Changsha |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | climate change effective accumulated temperature greenhouse effect weather-yield model |
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