| 后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘家华.后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1):10-15. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘家华 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国社会科学院 可持续发展研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室开放课题项目(LCS2003-4)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 国际气候制度的谈判错综复杂。然而,2012年以后国际气候承诺的基础,仍将取决于各国的政治意愿、经济利益和科学认知。谈判的平台不仅限于缔约方会议,也可能是缔约方会议体制外的双边、多边乃至单边形式,而且,协议内容将涉及减排、适应、技术、低碳发展等,最终将可能形成在可持续发展框架下适应与减缓气候变化的综合性一揽子协议。中国在未来20 a或更长时间仍将处于快速工业化和城市化的进程,对协议内容的选择只能是弱化各种风险,规避刚性约束,需要积极参与国际规制的制定,保障并强化中国的可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 后京都协议 气候谈判 对策思考 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-1719(2005)01-0010-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-4-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年4月19日 |
Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements and Policy Choices by China |
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| Pan Jiahua.Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements and Policy Choices by China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2005,1(1):10-15. |
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| Authors: | Pan Jiahua |
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| Abstract: | The negotiation of the international climate regimes is a highly complicated process. Nevertheless, the determinants for beyond 2012 commitments rely on the political will, economic interest and scientific knowledge of the global powers. The vehicles for post-Kyoto negotiations will be not only confined to the UNFCCC process, but bilateral, multilateral and even unilateral commitments outside the UNFCCC are also likely to take place. Furthermore, the contents of agreements will cover mitigation, adaptation, technologies, and low carbon development. In the end, it is possible that a basket of agreements will be concluded under the overall framework of sustainable development. In the next 20 years or so, China will be in the process of large-scale and rapid industrialization and urbanization. The choice by China for climate agreements will have to consider the reduction of possible risks, avoidance of inflexible restrictions, and active participation in the negotiation and making of international regimes, so as to safeguard and promote sustainable development in China. |
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| Keywords: | post-Kyoto agreements climate negotiation policy choices by China |
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