A framework for estimating ecological risks posed by nutrients and trace elements in the Patuxent River |
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| Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Steven?M?BartellEmail author |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, NC 27402-6170, USA;(2) Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD 21037-0028, USA |
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| Abstract: | The continued urbanization of coastal watersheds can influence the quality of water that enters rivers and estuaries. Intelligent
management of aquatic resources will require the capability to quantitatively assess and evaluate the impacts of alterations
in surface waters that result from changes in patterns of land use. An aquatic ecosystem model was developed and linked to
an empirical landscape model to estimate ecological risks posed by nutrients and potentially toxic trace elements (copper
Cu], cadmium Cd], arsenic As]) in the Patuxent River, Maryland. The empirical landscape model translated reductions in
croplands within the Patuxent River watershed into corresponding changes in nitrate estimated to enter the river. Trace element
concentrations were increased in relation to urbanization associated with the loss of agricultural lands in the watershed.
The aquatic ecosystem model used the altered inputs of nutrients and trace elements to estimate changes in the annual production
dynamics of selected producer and consumer populations within the Patuxent River. The models were implemented for four mainstem
locations that defined a transect from the upper freshwater portion of the river to downstream estuarine locations. Ecological
impacts were estimated for 4 hypothetical changes in land use that consisted of 10%, 7.5%, 5%, and 2.5% watershed coverage
by cropland. Impacts were estimated as the probability (risk) of different magnitudes of increases or decreases in total annual
production of populations representative of freshwater and estuarine food webs in the Patuxent River. |
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