The predictability of meteo-oceanographic events |
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| Authors: | Luciana Bertotti Luigi Cavaleri |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Marine Sciences, Venice, Italy |
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| Abstract: | We have explored the predictability of storms in a small enclosed basin with a complicated surrounding orography. We have
considered two exceptional storms in the far past and three mild events happened in recent years. A posteriori forecasts have
been done up to 6 days before the events. The results have been compared versus measured data and the related analysis. Good
predictability (10–15% error in surface wind speed and wave height) have been found up to day 4, mildly larger (<30%) up to
day 6 before the event. In no case was a storm missed. This suggests that the effective predictability in more open basins
may extend to even larger ranges. |
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