| 中国降水异常的特征分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邹波,刘式达.中国降水异常的特征分析[J].气象学报,2003,61(4):474-479. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邹波 刘式达 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 民航飞行学院交通学院空管系,广汉,618307
2. 北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京,100871 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 科技部科研院所社会工业专项资金:我国干旱和半干旱陆面过程对降水及沙漠化的影响，国家基金(40035010) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 异常降水直接影响着农业和其他生产活动。文中计算分析了中国160个测站的一些反映降水变化的常规统计量,认为这些统计量难以反映出降水异常的变化特征。文中从非线性动力学和统计学相结合的角度出发,分析了相隔1～20 a间不同时间尺度的降水变率之间的关系,找到可以区分任意地区降水异常特点的特征参数,由此可进一步判断某个地区旱涝灾害发生的可能性以及强度的大小,为气候研究工作提供必要的依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 相对降水变率 加权概率密度 层次变量 特征参数 降水图像 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002/6/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年6月28日 |
ANALYSES OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION HIERARCHY FOR SHORT-TIME CLIMATE IN CHINA |
| |
| Zou Bo and Liu Shida.ANALYSES OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION HIERARCHY FOR SHORT-TIME CLIMATE IN CHINA[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,61(4):474-479. |
| |
| Authors: | Zou Bo and Liu Shida |
| |
| Institution: | Civil Aviation Flight College of Sichuan Province, Guanghan, 618307;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 |
| |
| Abstract: | Climate disasters often appear,especially abnormal rainfall. Normal statistical variables usually being mean values are gotten at a fixed time scale. Areas having the same one statistical variable behave very differently in precipitation course. Thus normal statistical variables can nearly reflect strong fluctuations of precipitation variation. In order to analyze unusual precipitation and search for its relationship on different time scale, we have used fifty years' monthly mean precipitation and analyzed the relative precipitation variation on different time scale from one to twenty years. By making use of random increments of climate series and calculating its high-ordered probability density function, we got hierarchy variables standing for precipitation variation on different time scale and different fluctuation. Through dimensional analysis, we concluded a relationship of hierarchy variables and found that its variety index could identify different preciptation pattern, and reflect strong fluctuations of precipitation variation series. We calculated the variety index of 160 areas all over China. Its value varied from minimum 0.38 to maximum 0.82. We also found that the values accord with actual precipitation variation series. This helps us to judge the possibility of drought and waterlog in an area. The relationship of hierarchy variables maybe helps us to develop short-time climate forecast ability. |
| |
| Keywords: | Relative precipitation variation rate High-ordered probability density fluctuation Hierarchy variables Characteristic parameter Precipitation pattern |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
