Regional economic impact analysis of earthquakes in northern Taiwan and its implications for disaster reduction policies |
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| Authors: | H C Lin Y L Kuo D Shaw M C Chang T M Kao |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Applied Economics, National Chiayi University, No. 300 Syuefu Rd., Chiayi City, 600, Taiwan;(2) Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City, 701, Taiwan;(3) Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei City, 115, Taiwan;(4) Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, No. 75 Chang-Hsing St., Taipei City, 106, Taiwan;(5) Department of Finance, Ming Chuan University, No. 250, Sec. 5, Zhongshan N. Rd., Shilin Dist., Taipei City, 111, Taiwan; |
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| Abstract: | The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt
the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by
Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng
and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake
is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster
reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail
trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and
entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan.
The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a
first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to
provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the
loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the
disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan. |
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