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The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
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| Authors: | Bo Li Steve Sain Linda O Mearns Henry A Anderson Sari Kovats Kristie L Ebi Marni Y V Bekkedal Marty S Kanarek Jonathan A Patz |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Statistics, Purdue University, 150 N. University Street, West Lafayette, IN, 47907-2067, USA 2. Institute of Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000, USA 3. Wisconsin Division of Public Health, PO Box 2659, Madison, WI, 53701, USA 4. Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK 5. IPCC Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA 6. Department of Health Services, Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Health, 1 W Wilson St. Room 150, Madison, WI, 53702, USA 7. Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin (at Madison), 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA 8. Nelson Institute, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin (at Madison), 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA |
| Abstract: | Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning. |
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