| 潮州市夏季高温影响因子分析及预报工具建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡立青,蔡赛缄,吕海勇.潮州市夏季高温影响因子分析及预报工具建立[J].广东气象,2012,34(3):6-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡立青 蔡赛缄 吕海勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 潮州市气象局,广东潮州,521000
2. 广州市防雷设施检测所,广东广州,510080 |
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| 基金项目： | 潮州市科技局课题《潮州市高温天气形成机理分析及其预报工具开发》 |
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| 摘 要： | 高温天气常常导致干旱和高温热浪等自然灾害，探讨高温天气的预报方法非常有现实意义。为此，利用潮州当地夏季高温情况，从将近50年资料中归纳分析，并挑选出主要影响当地出现高温的气象因子，采用统计分析工具SPSS进行因子分析与线性回归计算，建立潮州夏季高温预报方程组，最后用VisualBasic语言设计开发了可用于日常业务预报高温的预报工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气学 高温热浪 因子分析 线性回归分析 预报工具 潮州市 |
Analysis on the Influence Factors for the Summer High Temperature and the Establishment of Forecast Tool in Chaozhou |
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| CAI Li-qing
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CAI Sai-jian
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LV Hai-yong.Analysis on the Influence Factors for the Summer High Temperature and the Establishment of Forecast Tool in Chaozhou[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2012,34(3):6-9. |
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| Authors: | CAI Li-qing CAI Sai-jian LV Hai-yong |
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| Institution: | 1.Chaozhou Meteorological Bureau,Chaozhou 521000; 2.Anti-thunder Facility Inspection Agency of Guangzhou,Guanghzou 510080) |
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| Abstract: | High temperature weather often leads to drought,wild fire and heat waves.This paper explores the forecast factors for high temperature weather in Chaozhou city based on the recent 50 year observation data.Statistical analysis tool SPSS is employed,to carry out the factor analysis and linear regression analysis,and then to establish the forecast equation,implemented by Visual Basic as an operational forecast tool.It proved to be useful by summer forecast verification. |
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| Keywords: | synoptics heat wave factor analysis linear regression analysis forecast tool |
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