| 地震活动的分幕研究及其我国主要地震区带未来十年的趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈荣华,丁香.地震活动的分幕研究及其我国主要地震区带未来十年的趋势预测[J].地震,1996,16(1):45-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈荣华 丁香 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局分析预报中心，国家地震局分析预报中心 中国北京 100036，中国北京 100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家地震局“八五”攻关项目(85-04-05-01) |
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| 摘 要： | 地震学者认为，在地震活动区一个较长的地震活动期里，地震群体活动的强度有一个发展变化的过程。笔者认为在一个地震活动期里，不仅地震群体活动在强度上有一个变化过程，而且在地震活动期的各个阶段中地震活跃幕和平静幕的持续时间也可能会有较显著的不同。基于这一思想，文中研究了华北地震区、我国西部及其邻区以及全国大部分地震带，在一个较长的地震活动期里，随着地震幕强度的变化，幕的持续时间和平静幕的持续时间通常有两种
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| 关 键 词： | 地震活动幕 地震平静 地震活动趋势 地震 |
STUDY ON THE EPISODIC ACTIVITY OF EARTHQUAKES AND TENDENCY PREDICTION IN COMING TEN YEARS IN MAIN SEISMIC AREAS AND ZONES IN CHINA |
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| Chen Ronghua Ding Xiang.STUDY ON THE EPISODIC ACTIVITY OF EARTHQUAKES AND TENDENCY PREDICTION IN COMING TEN YEARS IN MAIN SEISMIC AREAS AND ZONES IN CHINA[J].Earthquake,1996,16(1):45-52. |
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| Authors: | Chen Ronghua Ding Xiang |
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| Abstract: | Seismologists think that there is a development and change on the group intensity of earthquake activity during a longer seismically active period in a seismically active area. Authors think further that the duration time of seismically active episodes and quiescence episodes may be quite different in different stages of seismically active period. Based on this idea, authors studied the episodic activity of earthquakes in North China, the western past of China and its vicinity and 26 earthquake zones in the country. The results show that there is an obvious change of the duration time of active episodes and quiescence episodes according to the intensity change of seismically active episodes in a longer seismically active period in North China, the western part of China and its vicinity . There are usually two kinds of changes. The first one is that the duration time of active episodes gets longer and the time of quiescencs episodes gets shorter with strengthening of intensity of the active episodes. The second one is the time of active episodes gets shorter and the time of quiescence episodes gets longer with weakening the active episodes. Authors fit the division of earthquake episodes in North China and the western part of China and its vicinity using GM (1. 1) model of Grey System theory, and studied qualitatively the division of the earthquake episodes of 26 earthquake zones in the country. Prediction of seismic tendency in the coming ten years in these seismic areas and zones has been made based on the above-mentioned research results. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic episode Seismic quiet Seismicity trend Grey system theory |
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