| 基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈南祥,;张海丰,;李松海.基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型[J].西安地质学院学报,2007(1):66-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈南祥 ;张海丰 ;李松海 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]华北水利水电学院岩土工程系,河南郑州450008; [2]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南郑州450011 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省杰出人才创薪基金项目（04210005000） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用相空间重构技术，并借助G—P算法、C-C方法和Wolf方法从宁陵地区地下水位一维时间序列中提取Lyapunov指数，结果表明此时间序列具有混沌特征。计算了宁陵地区地下水位时间序列的关联维数、时间延迟和最大Lyapunov指数，将局域加权一阶多步预测模型应用于地下水位预测。预测表明，此模型可有效应用于地下水位时间序列的多步预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 相空间重构 混沌 地下水位 Lyapunov指数 关联维数 |
Multi-Steps Prediction Model of Underground Water Table Based on Chaotic Time Series |
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| Institution: | CHEN Nan-xiang , ZHANG Hai-feng , LI Song-hai (1. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power , Zhengzhou 450008, Henan, China; 2. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Company, Zhengzhou 450011, Henan, China) |
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| Abstract: | Applying phase space reconstruction method, G-P arithmetic, C-C arithmetic and Wolf method, this paper distills Lyapunov exponents from one-dimension time series of underground water table in Ningling county. The result indicates that this time series possesses the character of chaos. The correlation dimension of time series, time delay and the largest Lyapunov exponent of underground water table in Ningling county are calculated. The add-weighted one-rank multi-steps prediction model is developed for the prediction of underground water table. The prediction indicates that this model can be easily used in multi-steps prediction of underground water table time series |
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| Keywords: | time series phase space reconstruction chaos underground water table Lyapunov exponent correlation dimension |
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