| The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
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| 作者姓名： | Jia-Long Wang Jian-Cun Gong Si-Qing Liu Gui-Ming Le and Jing-Lan Sun National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Center for Space Science and Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing |
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| 作者单位： | Jia-Long Wang，Jian-Cun Gong，Si-Qing Liu，Gui-Ming Le and Jing-Lan Sun1 National Astronomical Observatories，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 1000122 Center for Space Science and Applied Research，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100080 |
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| 基金项目： | This work is supported by National Nature Science Foundation Project No.4999-0451，Space Environmental Prediction Center，Center for Space Science and Applied Research, CAS, China. |
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| 摘 要： | We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
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The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
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| Jia-Long Wang,Jian-Cun Gong,Si-Qing Liu,Gui-Ming Le and Jing-Lan Sun National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing Center for Space Science and Applied Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing .The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J].Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2002,2(6). |
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| Authors: | Jia-Long Wang Jian-Cun Gong Si-Qing Liu Gui-Ming Le Jing-Lan Sun |
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| Institution: | National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 |
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| Abstract: | We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum ampli-tude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise predictionof the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despiteprogress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical character-istics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, ahigh rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, dependingon the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascendingphase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of thecycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the startof the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximumamplitude. |
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| Keywords: | Sun: sunspots - Sun: activity |
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