Impact of Climate Change on Runoff of the Major River Basins of India Using Global Circulation Model (HadCM3) Projected Data |
| |
| Authors: | Praveen K Gupta Sushma Panigrahy Jai Singh Parihar |
| |
| Institution: | (1) Environment and Hydrology Division, ABHG, EPSA, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad, 380015, India;(2) Agriculture, Terrestrial Biosphere and Hydrology Group, EPSA, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad, 380015, India;(3) Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad, 380015, India |
| |
| Abstract: | The effects of climate change on hydrological regimes have become a priority area for water and catchment management strategies.
The terrestrial hydrology driven by monsoon rainfall plays a crucial role in shaping the agriculture, surface and ground water
scenario in India. Thus, it is imperative to assess the impact of the changing climatic scenario projected under various climate
change scenario towards the hydrological aspects for India. Runoff is one of the key parameters used as an indicator of hydrological
process. A study was taken up to analyse the climate change impact on the runoff of river basins of India. The global circulation
model output of Hadley centre (HADCM3) projected climate change data was used. Scenario for 2080 (A2 scenario indicating more
industrial growth) was selected. The runoff was modeled using the curve number method in spatial domain using satellite derived
current landuse/cover map. The derived runoff was compared with the runoff using normal climatic data (1951–1980). The results
showed that there is a decline in the future climatic runoff in most of the river basins of India compared to normal climatic
runoff. However, significant reduction was observed for the river basins in the eastern region viz: lower part of Ganga, Bahamani-Baitrani,
Subarnrekha and upper parts of the Mahanadi. The mean projected runoff reduction during monsoon season (June–September) were
18 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM), 3.2 BCM, 3.5 BCM and 5.9 BCM for Brahmaputra-Barak Subarnrekha, Subarnarekha and Brahmini-Baitrani
basin, respectively in comparison to normal climatic runoff. Overall reduction in seasonal runoff was high for Subarnrekha
basin (54.1%). Rainfall to runoff conversion was high for Brahmaputra-Barak basin (72%), whereas coefficient of variation
for runoff was more for Mahanadi basin (1.88) considering the monsoon season. Study indicates that eastern India agriculture
may be affected due to shortage of surface water availability. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
