| 云南地区破坏性地震的人员灾情预估方法初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 施伟华,周光全,卢永坤.云南地区破坏性地震的人员灾情预估方法初探[J].地震研究,2005,28(3):294-297. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施伟华 周光全 卢永坤 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局,昆明,650041 |
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| 摘 要： | 用云南地区1992～2001年的39次破坏性地震中的受灾人口、无家可归人数和死亡人数分别与震级拟合，得到云南地区震级与这三者的关系曲线及表达式。用云南地区某地的人口密度加权系数(震区的人口密度与云南地区人口密度之比)对前二式加以校正，即可预先评估当该地发生某级破坏性地震时的受灾人口和无家可归人数；用云南地区某地的人口密度加权系数和发震时段的人员户外系数，对第三式加以校正，则可以预先评估该地发生某级破坏性地震时的死亡人数。以云南地区2001年的6次5—6级地震为实例，用以上方法估算了这6次地震的受灾人口、无家可归人数和死亡人数，并与地震现场评估的结果作比较，多数结果都比较接近，只有少数相差较大。
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| 关 键 词： | 破坏性地震 人员灾情 预估方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0666-(2005)03-0294-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月24日 |
Preliminary Discussion on an Early Estimating Method for the Condition of Afflicted Personnel by the Destructive Earthquake in Yunnan Area |
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| SHI Wei-hua,ZHOU Guang-quan,LU Yong-kun.Preliminary Discussion on an Early Estimating Method for the Condition of Afflicted Personnel by the Destructive Earthquake in Yunnan Area[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2005,28(3):294-297. |
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| Authors: | SHI Wei-hua ZHOU Guang-quan LU Yong-kun |
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| Abstract: | According to the conditions of afflicted personal in 39 destructive earthquakes occurred in 1992-2001 in the Yunnan area, we fitted the relation curves of afflicted population, number of homeless people and number of fatalities with magnitude respectively, and got three expressions between them. After a destructive earthquake with certain magnitude shocks an area of Yunnan, we can use the first two expressions to estimate afflicted population and the number of homeless people in this area after they are corrected with population density weighted coefficient (the ratio of the population density in the area to that in Yunnan); and we can use the third expression to estimate the number of fatalities after it is corrected with population density weighted coefficient in this area and the outdoor personnel coefficient at the occurrence time of the earthquake. Taking six earthquakes with magnitude 5 to 6 occurred in 2001 in Yunnan as examples, we early estimated their afflicted population, number of homeless people and number of fatalities, and compared them with the estimations on field; lots of results are close. |
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| Keywords: | destructive earthquake condition of afflicted personnel early estimating method |
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