| Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by IPCC AR4 Models |
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| 作者姓名： | TU Kai YAN Zhong-Wei ZHANG Xue-Bin DONG Wen-Jie |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,,, |
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| 基金项目： | Acknowledgements. This study was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401/2006CB400503 and the Chinese Meteorological Administration Program GYHY200706001. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Inter-comparison （PCMDI）, and the WCRP＇s Working Group on Coupled Modeling （WGCM）, for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. |
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| 摘 要： | The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国东部 降水模型 季风区 中国东北地区 东亚夏季风 模拟 气候变化趋势 耦合模式 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/9/2009 12:00:00 AM |
Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models |
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| TU Kai,YAN Zhong-Wei,ZHANG Xue-Bin,DONG Wen-Jie.Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by IPCC AR4 Models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2009,2(4):194-200. |
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| Authors: | TU Kai YAN Zhong-Wei ZHANG Xue-Bin and DONG Wen-Jie |
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| Institution: | RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,Climate Data and Analysis Section, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada,State Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing |
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| Abstract: | The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE). The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Extreme Values) distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation East Asian Monsoon IPCC AR4 Coupled Models Generalized Extreme Values |
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