Transient projections of permafrost distribution in Canada during the 21st century under scenarios of climate change |
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| Authors: | Yu Zhang Wenjun Chen Daniel W Riseborough |
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| Institution: | aCanada Centre for Remote Sensing, Natural Resources Canada, 588 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0Y7;bGeological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A OE8 |
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| Abstract: | Most general circulation models (GCMs) project that climate will be warmer in the 21st century, especially in high latitudes. Climate warming will induce permafrost degradation, which would have great impacts on hydrology, ecosystems and soil biogeochemistry, and could destabilize the foundations of infrastructure. In this study, we simulated transient changes of permafrost distribution in Canada in the 21st century using a process-based permafrost model driven by six GCM-generated climate scenarios. The results show that the area underlain by permafrost in Canada would be reduced by 16.0–19.7% from the 1990s to the 2090s. This estimate was smaller than equilibrium projections because the ground thermal regime was in disequilibrium at the end of the 21st century and permafrost degradation would continue. The simulation shows significant permafrost thaw from the top: On average for the area where permafrost exists in all the years during 1990–2100, active-layer thickness increased by 0.3–0.7 m (or 41–104%), the depth to permafrost table increased by 1.9–5.0 m, and the area with taliks increased exponentially. Permafrost was also thawed from the bottom in southern regions. |
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| Keywords: | permafrost climate change modeling Canada |
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