| CALCULATION OF BASIC ENVIRONMENTAL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND STATISTICAL STUDY ON TC TRACK AND ITS DEVIATION |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 高拴柱 |
| |
| 作者单位： | National Meteorological Center |
| |
| 基金项目： | The Program of Research on Weather Forecasting Methods and Operational Systems by the
National Meteorological Center (ZX95-02) |
| |
| 摘 要： | Using the T63L16 analysis data with the resolution of 1.875╳1.875 degree of latitude and longitude
obtained from National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the real central position information of tropical
cyclone (referred to as TC hereafter) numbered by NMC, the basic environmental geostrophic flow at 126
time levels of 25 TCs in 1996 are calculated. The vertical distribution features of the flows are analyzed. Besides, the deviation of real TC tracks from the flows (referred as steering deviation hereafter, namely, the deviation between the real central position of TC and the position calculated according to the steering flow) is also investigated. The result shows that the steering deviation would be different if the domain used to calculate the steering flow is different. The present paper obtains the optimum domain size to calculate the steering flow. It is found that the steering deviation is related to the velocity of steering flow and the initial latitude and intensity of TC itself, and that TC motion has relationship with the vertical shear structure of environmental geostrophic flow. The result also shows that the optimum steering flow is the deep-layer averaged basic flow from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa. Having the knowledge of these principle and features would help make accurate forecast of TC
motion.
|
| 关 键 词： | environmental geostrophic basic flow steering deviation TC motion |
CALCULATION OF BASIC ENVIRONMENTAL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND STATISTICAL STUDY ON TC TRACK AND ITS DEVIATION |
| |
| GAO Shuan-zhu.CALCULATION OF BASIC ENVIRONMENTAL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND STATISTICAL STUDY ON TC TRACK AND ITS DEVIATION[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2001,7(2):209-217. |
| |
| Authors: | GAO Shuan-zhu |
| |
| Institution: | National Meteorological Center, |
| |
| Abstract: | Using the T63L16 analysis data with the resolution of 1.875╳1.875 degree of latitude and longitude obtained from National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the real central position information of tropical cyclone (referred to as TC hereafter) numbered by NMC, the basic environmental geostrophic flow at 126 time levels of 25 TCs in 1996 are calculated. The vertical distribution features of the flows are analyzed. Besides, the deviation of real TC tracks from the flows (referred as steering deviation hereafter, namely, the deviation between the real central position of TC and the position calculated according to the steering flow) is also investigated. The result shows that the steering deviation would be different if the domain used to calculate the steering flow is different. The present paper obtains the optimum domain size to calculate the steering flow. It is found that the steering deviation is related to the velocity of steering flow and the initial latitude and intensity of TC itself, and that TC motion has relationship with the vertical shear structure of environmental geostrophic flow. The result also shows that the optimum steering flow is the deep-layer averaged basic flow from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa. Having the knowledge of these principle and features would help make accurate forecast of TC motion. |
| |
| Keywords: | environmental geostrophic basic flow steering deviation TC motion |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
