| 中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国能源合作前景展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛汉英.中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国能源合作前景展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(10):1433-1443. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛汉英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;2. 国际欧亚科学院中国科学中心, 北京 100107 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“一三五”战略科技项目“中亚地区资源环境格局与区域发展” |
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| 摘 要： | 中国是当今世界上仅次于美国的第二大能源消费国和进口国,能源供应安全直接关系到中国的国家安全和现代化进程。通过与俄罗斯和中亚五国的能源合作来扩展石油与天然气来源,与传统的海运进口方式相比,不仅可以大幅度节省运费和时间,而且能源供应的安全性也可大大提高。本文从地理学和地缘政治角度,在深入分析中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国开展能源合作的战略背景、现实需要、资源储备、发展现状的基础上,结合已有的能源合作项目和发展计划,预测了未来至2030 年不同时间点的能源合作潜力与规模。主要结论如下:① 至2015 年,来自俄罗斯及中亚五国的原油在中国原油进口总额中所占比例将由2010 年的12.3%上升至20%,而天然气由10%上升至50%,两者相加占中国油气综合进口量的26%;② 至2020 年,来自俄罗斯和中亚五国的原油、天然气和油气综合进口量所占比例分别上升至28%、70%和38%;③ 至2030 年,分别占26%、75%和40%。本文筛选并展望了中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国已经开展或即将开展的10 项重要能源合作项目。为进一步提升能源合作,本文重点推荐了4 种合作模式,即贷款换石油模式、产量分成模式、联合经营模式和技术服务模式,认为应妥善协调能源合作中的矛盾与问题,加强能源开发中的生态保护与环境治理,并重视改善能源合作开发区域的民生状况。
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| 关 键 词： | 俄罗斯 能源合作 中国 中亚五国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-10-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-10-01 |
Prospects of energy cooperation of China with Russia and Central Asian countries |
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| MAO Hanying.Prospects of energy cooperation of China with Russia and Central Asian countries[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(10):1433-1443. |
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| Authors: | MAO Hanying |
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| Institution: | 1. Institude of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;2. China Science Center of International Eurasian Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100107, China |
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| Abstract: | Security of energy supply directly influences China's national security and the process of modernization. In 2011, China's dependence on foreign petroleum has run up to 54.95%, exceeding 50%, the internationally accepted alarm level. Therefore, how to ensure long-term, sustained, secure and reliable energy supply for China becomes the top priority of China's energy security. By energy cooperation in petroleum and natural gas resources with Russia and five Central Asian countries, China can remarkably reduce the costs of freight and time because of not only the geographical proximity but also the efficient pipeline transportation. As opposed to the traditional way of seaborne imports (accounting for 88% of China's crude oil imports), the energy cooperation can greatly improve the safety and reliability of energy supply because there is no need to pass through the maritime strategic channels under the control of other countries. In this paper, from the geopolitical point of view, based on the in-depth analysis of geopolitical background, strategic needs, resource basis and the status of the energy cooperation of China with Russia and five Central Asian countries, the author predicts the prospects of energy cooperation and the scales of the cooperation in different stages to the year of 2030, and proposes energy cooperation projects and development plans. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In 2015, Russia and Central Asian countries will account for more of China's import, from 12.3% (2010) to 20% in crude oil, from 10% (2010) to 50% in natural gas, and 26% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources; (2) In 2020, crude oil and natural gas imports from Russia and Central Asian countries will rise to 28% and 70% respectively, accounting for 38% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources; (3) In 2030, crude oil and natural gas imports from Russia and Central Asian countries will steadily stand at 26% and 75% respectively, accounting for 40% of the import of comprehensive crude oil and gas resources. This paper lists ten essential energy cooperation projects of China with Russia and five Central Asian countries. In order to enhance the level of cooperation, the paper puts forward four energy cooperation modes: loans for petroleum, production- sharing, joint management and technical services. |
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| Keywords: | Central Asian countries China energy cooperation Russia |
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