| 水氡滑动变化率法对发震时间的预测检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 范雪芳,张淑亮,王吉易.水氡滑动变化率法对发震时间的预测检验[J].山西地震,2006(1):22-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范雪芳 张淑亮 王吉易 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山西省地震局,山西,太原,030021
2. 河北省地震局,河北,石家庄,050021 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用“九五”研究成果对山西省及邻省地区水氡的多年观测资料进行了处理分析。根据应力应变的变化,推算出水氡滑动变化率的计算公式,同时计算了各测点的基值变化率和滑动变化率,根据变化率的大小,结合震例,给出了水氡滑动变化率值预测发震时间的步骤、判断指标和方法。根据震例的对应情况,对该方法的预测效能进行了检验。
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| 关 键 词： | 水氡 滑动变化率 发震时间 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6265（2006）01-0022-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-07-13 |
Test for Prediction of Time of Earthquakes Occurrence by Using Slide Variation Rate Method to Radon in Groundwater |
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| FAN Xue-fang,ZHANG Shu-liang,WANG Ji-yi.Test for Prediction of Time of Earthquakes Occurrence by Using Slide Variation Rate Method to Radon in Groundwater[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2006(1):22-28. |
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| Authors: | FAN Xue-fang ZHANG Shu-liang WANG Ji-yi |
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| Institution: | 1. Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Shanxi ,Taiyuan 030021, China; 2. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on variation of stress and strain from several years' observation data of radon in groundwater of neighbor province region by using the "Ninth-Five Plan" research result,formula for calculating slide variation rate of radon in groundwater is worked out.With this formula,variation rate of base value and slide variation rate of each observation site are calculated simultaneously.Based on magnitude of variation rate of the earthquake cases,the step,estimation index and method to predict time of earthquake occurrence by slide variation rate value of radon in groundwater are presented.Based on corresponding instance of earthquake cases,the prediction efficiency of this method is tested and evaluated. |
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| Keywords: | Radon in groundwater Slide variation rate Time of earthquake occurrence |
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