| 23周太阳活动的现状和展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 张勤.23周太阳活动的现状和展望[J].紫金山天文台台刊,1999,18(2):147-150. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院云南天文台!昆明650011 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文给出了太阳２３ 周开始时间的确定、从开始到现在近两年间太阳活动的状况以及２３周上升期间的一些特点。分析表明，１９９６ 年１０ 月是２３ 周的第一个月，它的月平滑值是８ ．８ ；２３ 周的太阳活动虽然可能是高活动周，例如，国际推荐值为２０００ 年３ 月的１６０ ，但它可能不会超过前两周。根据上升期太阳活动的一些特征，还给出了在２３ 周峰年联测和空间灾害性扰动事件预报和预报方法研究中应注意的几个问题
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳—活动—太阳周 |
AN OUTLOOK AND FUTURE OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE 23 |
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| Authors: | Zhang Qin |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the determination of outset time for the Cycle 23, the state of solar activity from the outset to the present and the some characteristics of solar activity in the ascension for this solar cycle are discussed. The analyses show that the October 1996 is the first month of the Cycle 23 and its mean monthly smoothed sunspot number is 8.8. The solar activity for the Cycle 23 may be a high active cycle, the international commendatory value being 160 for March 2000. However its active level may not exceed both previous two solar cycles. The some problems meriting attention in the predictions and predictive technique researces for joint observations of the maximum year of the Cycle 23 and disturbance of space calamities are presented. |
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| Keywords: | Sun activity solar cycle |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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