| 胶州湾风暴潮增水重现值的长期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 董胜,许鹏婧,刘伟.胶州湾风暴潮增水重现值的长期预测[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2009,39(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 董胜 许鹏婧 刘伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学工程学院,山东,青岛,266100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50879085);;国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2006AA09Z344);;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-07-0778)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以胶州湾30 a风暴潮过程的极值增水值为统计序列,按照年、季、月等不同时段,分别抽样极值增水样本,提出泊松最大熵分布,采用年极值法和过阈法对增水重现值进行长期预测,统计分析结果对于胶州湾防潮减灾有参考作用,其随机分析方法对于遭受风暴潮影响的海岸区域有借鉴意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴潮增水 重现值 预测 泊松最大熵分布 胶州湾 |
Long-term Prediction of Return Extreme Storm Surge Elevation in Jiaozhou Bay |
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| DONG Sheng,XU Peng-Jing,LIU Wei.Long-term Prediction of Return Extreme Storm Surge Elevation in Jiaozhou Bay[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2009,39(5). |
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| Authors: | DONG Sheng XU Peng-Jing LIU Wei |
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| Institution: | College of Engineering;Ocean University of China;Qingdao 266100;China |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of 30-year storm surge elevation occurred in Jiaozhou Bay,different samples are selected by the different periods,such as year,season,and month.The Poisson Maximum Entropy distribution is proposed in The paper to predict return values of extreme storm surge elevation by both the Annual Maximum Method and the Peak Over Threshold Method.Calculation results will be a reference for the storm disaster prevention in coastal area. |
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| Keywords: | storm surge elevation return value prediction Poisson Maximum Entropy distribution Jiaozhou Bay |
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