A Multidisciplinary Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment of Rock Avalanches |
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| Authors: | M Castelli C Scavia |
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| Institution: | (1) Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Torino, Italy |
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| Abstract: | Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed
in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying
particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction
of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified
in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian
Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods,
many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition
of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However
geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced
through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and
their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient
reliability.
Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca
degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy |
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| Keywords: | : Large landslides rock avalanches hazard analysis risk analysis |
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