| 水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 武震,张世强,丁永建.水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):890-896. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武震 张世强 丁永建 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所，甘肃 兰州 730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院方向性项目;国家自然科学基金;中国科学院基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 从水文系统模拟的基本特点出发，分析了水文模拟中广泛存在的不确定性的来源，对与水文系统模拟不确定性相关的研究进展进行了分类回顾，并介绍了贝叶斯概率水文预报理论的一般流程。研究回顾表明，数理统计是定量描述水文不确定性的有利工具。其次，完善水文机理研究，提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平，以及提高降水预报的精度、概率水文算法的效率和精度是进一步减少水文模拟的不确定性的发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文 模拟 不确定性 贝叶斯理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-694X（2007）05-0890-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-10-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-082006-12-15 |
Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation |
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| WU Zhen,ZHANG Shi-qiang,DING Yong-jian.Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(5):890-896. |
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| Authors: | WU Zhen ZHANG Shi-qiang DING Yong-jian |
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| Institution: | Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the basic characters in hydrologic simulation,the authors analyzed the causes of uncertainty widely existed in hydrologic simulation,reviewed on research progress in various hydrologic simulation uncertainty,and introduced the general flow of Bayesian Probability Hydrology Forecasting System.It has been found that the mathematical statistics is a helpful tool for quantitatively describing hydrologic uncertainty,besides,to further limit the uncertainty of hydrologic simulation needs efforts in following studies: to perfect the research on hydrologic mechanism,to improve the observation level of precipitation and the related parameters of underlying surface,to increase the precipitation forecast accuracy,and to heighten the efficiency and precision of probability hydrology calculation. |
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| Keywords: | hydrology simulation uncertainty Bayesian theory |
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