Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique |
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| Authors: | S K Roy Bhowmik S D Kotal S R Kalsi |
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| Institution: | (1) India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 110003, India |
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| Abstract: | One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre, New Delhi is to provide 12-hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h (preferably 72 h) on the intensity of cyclones over the
southern Indian Seas. In this paper, a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of
Bengal is proposed. The model parameter has been determined from a database assembled on 30 recent cyclones, and the model
itself is based on the assumption that a TC intensifies exponentially. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent
observation hours (6- or 12-h intervals) is also presented. The results show that the forecast skill for forecasts of up to
48 h is reasonably good. The absolute mean errors are less than 12 knots for 48-h forecasts, with the forecast skill decreasing
with time. With the incorporation of a correction procedure based on the latest observations, some improvement in the forecast
skill can be obtained. The model is expected to be useful to operational forecasters. |
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| Keywords: | Intensity prediction Empirical model and tropical cyclone |
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