The Study of Medium- and Short-term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (M_S=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M_S=5.8) |
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| Authors: | Jiang Zaisen Zhao Zhencai Wang Haitao Wang Jiying and Wang ShuangxuThe Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center SSB Xi'an China Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi China |
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| Institution: | Jiang Zaisen,Zhao Zhencai,Wang Haitao,Wang Jiying,and Wang ShuangxuThe Second Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center,SSB,Xi'an 710054,China Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area's seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Medium and short-term earthquake prediction Large seismic situation Geodetic deformation Synthetic analysis |
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