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| 我国非洲猪瘟疫情时空变化及其传播风险 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘海,安泽禹,黄跃飞,贾鹏,朱运海.我国非洲猪瘟疫情时空变化及其传播风险[J].世界地理研究,2022,31(2):410-417. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘海 安泽禹 黄跃飞 贾鹏 朱运海 |
| 作者单位： | 湖北大学资源环境学院，武汉 430062 湖北文理学院资源环境与旅游学院，襄阳 441100 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71974070);湖北省技术创新专项项目(2018ADC080) |
| 摘 要： | 非洲猪瘟（African swine fever，ASF）是一种不感染人的针对猪的强传染病，对养猪业有着致命打击，研究ASF的时空变化特征及其传播风险分析，便于ASF的预防和控制。从地理学的视角，在对我国ASF疫情时空变化及传播方向分析的基础上，利用最大熵模型对ASF疫情传播风险进行研究。结果表明：我国ASF疫情呈现先增长后快速减少并趋于平稳的趋势，暴发疫情最多的是西南、东北地区，最为集聚的区域为东北地区，传播方向呈现东北方向向东部、南部方向，西南方向向西北方向传播的特征；影响ASF发病的主要因素有公路、河流、人口、养殖密度和第一产业GDP，据此构建ASF疫情风险传播模型，预测出高风险区主要聚集在东北、西南和东南地区。在上述分析基础上，提出了ASF疫情防控的措施建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 非洲猪瘟 时空变化 传播风险 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-01-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-03-22 |
Spatio-temporal variation of African swine fever epidemic and its transmission risk in China |
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| Hai LIU,Zeyu AN,Yuefei HUANG,Peng JIA,Yunhai ZHU.Spatio-temporal variation of African swine fever epidemic and its transmission risk in China[J].World Regional Studies,2022,31(2):410-417. | |
| Authors: | Hai LIU Zeyu AN Yuefei HUANG Peng JIA Yunhai ZHU |
| Institution: | Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430000, China School of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Hubei University of Arts and Sciences, Xiangyang 441100, China |
| Abstract: | African Swine Fever (ASF) is a strong infectious disease against pigs that does not infect humans and has a fatal impact on the pig industry. It is convenient to prevent and control ASF by studying the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of ASF and carrying out transmission risk analysis. From the perspective of geography, based on the analysis of the spatiotemporal variation and transmission direction of ASF epidemic in China, the maximum entropy model was used to study the transmission risk of ASF epidemic in China.The results showed that the prevalence of ASF in China increased at first and then decreased rapidly and tended to be stable. The largest number of ASF outbreaks occurred in southwest and northeast China, and the most concentrated region was northeast China. The direction of ASF transmission was northeast to east and south, and southwest to northwest.The main factors affecting the incidence of ASF are roads, rivers, population, breeding density and GDP of the primary industry. Based on this, the risk transmission model of ASF epidemic was constructed, and it was predicted that the high risk areas were mainly concentrated in the northeast, southwest and southeast regions.On the basis of the above analysis, the measures for ASF epidemic prevention and control were put forward.Key words: African swine fever; spatio-temporal variation; transmission risk |
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