Evaluating long-range volcanic ash hazard using supercomputing facilities: application to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy), and consequences for civil aviation over the Central Mediterranean Area |
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| Authors: | A Folch R Sulpizio |
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| Institution: | 1. Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, c/Jordi Girona 29, 08034, Barcelona, Spain
2. CIRISIVU, c/o Dipartimento Geomineralogico, Via Orabona, 4, 70125, Bari, Italy
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| Abstract: | Volcanic ash causes multiple hazards. One hazard of increasing importance is the threat posed to civil aviation, which occurs
over proximal to long-range distances. Ash fallout disrupts airport operations, while the presence of airborne ash at low
altitudes near airports affects visibility and the safety of landing and take-off operations. Low concentrations of ash at
airplane cruise levels are sufficient to force re-routing of in-flight aircrafts. Volcanic fallout deposits spanning large
distances have been recognized from the Somma-Vesuvius volcano for several Holocene explosive eruptions. Here we develop hazard
and isochron maps for distal ash fallout from the Somma-Vesuvius, as well as hazard maps for critical ash concentrations at
relevant flight levels. Maps are computed by coupling a meteorological model with a fully numeric tephra dispersal model that
can account for ash aggregation processes, which are relevant to the dispersion dynamics of fine ash. The simulations were
carried out using supercomputing facilities, spanning on entire meteorological year that is statistically representative of
the local meteorology during the last few decades. Seasonal influences are also analyzed. The eruptive scenario is based on
a Subplinian I-type eruption, which is within the range of the maximum expected event for this volcano. Results allow us to
quantify the impact that an event of this magnitude and intensity would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of
the Central Mediterranean Area. |
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