Dynamic process-based risk assessment of debris flow on a local scale |
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| Authors: | Qiang Zou Peng Cui Chao Zeng Jianxi Tang Amar Deep Regmi |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Environmental and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China;2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment/Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China |
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| Abstract: | After the Wenchuan earthquake in China, debris flows have been more frequent. Multiple debris flows commonly occur in earthquake-affected areas during heavy rainfall, often causing losses of lives and property. We analyzed the dynamic movement of debris flows and proposed a quantitative method of debris flow hazard assessment, based on kinetic energy. Validated using field study of an actual debris flow disaster, these analyzes help determine the type, quantity, distribution, economic worth, and susceptibility of elements at risk. We established a method to determine vulnerability of elements at risk and we propose a systematic and quantitative method for local risk analysis of debris flows. We applied the proposed method to a debris flow in Qipan gully, which caused serious damages for Duwen Highway and Qipan settlements of Sichuan Province in 2013. With the support of a debris-flow movement numerical simulation, remote sensing, and GIS techniques, the proposed method analyzed disaster effects and divided the hazardous areas into three risk zones. Calculated risk zones coincided with the actual distribution and severity of damage of the event, suggesting that the risk assessment generated by the proposed method is consistent with results from the actual disaster. |
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| Keywords: | Debris flow risk assessment hazard analysis vulnerability Wenchuan earthquake |
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