Assessment of climate change impact on the stream-flow in a typical debris flow watershed of Jianzhuangcuan catchment in Shaanxi Province, China |
| |
| Authors: | Aidi Huo Hua Li |
| |
| Institution: | 1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054, China
2. Hainan Research Institute of Construction Project Planning and Design, Haikou, 570203, China
|
| |
| Abstract: | The study on the stream-flow change associated with future climate change scenarios has a practical significance for local socio-economic development and eco-environmental protection. A study on the Jianzhuangcuan catchments was carried out to quantify the expected impact of climate change on the stream-flow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios were developed by ensemble four Global Climate Models, which showed good performance for Jianzhuangcuan catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically based distributed hydrological model, was used to investigate the impacts on stream-flow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily stream-flow records. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the daily stream-flow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency >0.83 for Yaoping Long station, for calibration and validation at daily and monthly scales. Their difference in simulating the stream-flow under future climate scenarios was also investigated. The results indicate a 0.6–0.9 °C increase in annual temperature and changes of 12.6–18.9 mm in seasonal precipitation corresponded to a change in stream-flow of about 0.62–3.67 for 2020 and 2030 scenarios. The impact of the climate change increased in both scenarios. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
