| 一种新的疾病发病人数预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李兆芹,姚克敏,申双和.一种新的疾病发病人数预测模型研究[J].气象科学,2006,26(4):462-466. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李兆芹 姚克敏 申双和 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州,310017
2. 南京信息工程大学应用气象系,南京,210044 |
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| 摘 要： | 以体感温度为自变量,将一元线性回归、自然正交函数和逐步回归结合起来,分别建立了炎热和凉爽季节下南京幼年感冒和金华老年脑血管病的旬发病人数预测模型。并将模型的预测结果与逐步回归模型进行了比较。比较得出:模型的预测效果比逐步回归模型的好。
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| 关 键 词： | 疾病发病人数 预测模型 一元线性回归 自然正交函数 逐步回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-07-25 |
STUDY ON NEW FORECAST MODELS FOR THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INCIDENCE CASE |
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| Li Zhaoqin,Yao Kemin and Shen Shuanghe.STUDY ON NEW FORECAST MODELS FOR THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INCIDENCE CASE[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2006,26(4):462-466. |
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| Authors: | Li Zhaoqin Yao Kemin and Shen Shuanghe |
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| Institution: | Research Institute of Meteorology,Hangzhou 310017;Department of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;Department of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Monadic linear regression analysis and nature orthonormalization function as well as stepwise regression were integrated to establish forecast model in hot and cold seasons for the young in Nanjing and cerebral hemorrhage as well as cerebral infarction for the old in Jinhua with apparent temperature referred as independent variable.And forecast ability was compared between the models built by selecting factors as well as orthonormalization and the other models built by stepwise regression analysis directly.The result shows that forecast ability of model by monadic linear regression analysis and nature orthonormalization function as well as stepwise regression was better than the model by direct stepwise regression analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Number of disease incidence case Forecast model Monadic linear regression Empirical orthogonal function Stepwise regression |
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