| 地震危险性概率分析方法:存在的问题和纠正 |
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| 引用本文： | 王振明.地震危险性概率分析方法:存在的问题和纠正[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(4):289-297. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王振明 |
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| 作者单位： | 肯塔基州地质调查局,美国,肯塔基州,莱克星顿市,40506 |
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| 基金项目： | Acknowledgments This research is in part supported by a grant from the U. S. Department of Energy, contract no. DE-- FG05-- 030R23032. A special appreciation should be given to Kelin Wang for his numerous thoughtful comments and suggestions. I thank Kenneth Campbell, Mai Zhou, and Leon Reiter for their comments and suggestions, and also Meg Smath of the Kentucky Geological Survey for editorial help. |
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| 摘 要： | 地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)是目前最广泛应用于地震灾害与风险性评估的方法。然而它在计算中却存在着一个错误:把强地面运动衰减关系(一个函数)的条件超越概率等同于强地面运动误差(一个变量)的超越概率。这个错误导致了运用强地面运动误差(空间分布特征)去外推强地面运动的发生(时间分布特征)或称之为遍历性假设,同时也造成了对PSHA理解和应用上的困难。本文推导出新的灾害计算方法(称之为KY-PSHA)来纠正这种错误。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震危险性概率分析 强地面运动 强地面运动衰减关系 强地面运动误差(不确定性) |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0844(2006)04-0289-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 09 20 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月20日 |
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Problem and Correction |
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| MANG?Zhen-ming.Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Problem and Correction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2006,28(4):289-297. |
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| Authors: | MANG?Zhen-ming |
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| Institution: | Kentucky Geological Survey,University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40506,U. S. A. |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),the most widely used method for assessing seismic hazard and risk,contains an error in its hazard calculation: incorrectly equating the conditional exceedance probability of the ground-motion attenuation relationship(a function) to the exceedance probability of the ground-motion uncertainty(a variable).This error results in using the ground-motion uncertainty(spatial characteristic) to extrapolate occurrence of ground motion(temporal characteristic) or the ergodic assumption.This error also results in difficulty in understanding and applying PSHA.An alternative approach,called KY-PSHA,is developed to correct the error in this paper. |
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Grand-motion Ground-motion attenuation relationship Ground-motion uncertainty |
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