| 长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析 |
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| 引用本文： | 信飞,陈伯民,孙国武,王超.长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析[J].气象科学,2014,34(6):672-677. |
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| 作者姓名： | 信飞 陈伯民 孙国武 王超 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市气候中心, 上海 200030,上海市气候中心, 上海 200030,中国气象局 兰州干旱气象研究所, 兰州 730020,上海市松江区气象局, 上海 201620 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市自然科学基金资助项目(12ZR1449400);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306030);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41205060) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对长三角汛期强降水过程,根据不同降水类型的特性,提出分时段建立低频模型并给出建模流程。综合分析长三角汛期强降水期的低频特性,将低频气旋及反气旋区分划分7个关键区。重点研究盛夏—初秋时段的强降水特征,在总结强降水期低频特征的基础上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的预报模型:1区或2区有低频气旋维持并发展;6区、7区或5区存在低频反气旋。并且在7个关键区中1、2区的低频气旋及5、6、7区的低频反气旋为主要低频系统,起决定作用,而3区的低频系统为次要低频系统,起辅助作用。利用该模型提前30 d预报出2012年汛期最强降水过程,并分析本次过程的低频系统演变,给出动态演变模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 强降水 延伸期过程预报 低频天气系统 经验正交函数分解 |
| 收稿时间： | 4/2/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/6/12 0:00:00 |
Exploration of forecast for heavy rainfall in extended period over Yangtze river region |
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| XIN Fei,CHEN Bomin,SUN Guowu and WANG Chao.Exploration of forecast for heavy rainfall in extended period over Yangtze river region[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2014,34(6):672-677. |
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| Authors: | XIN Fei CHEN Bomin SUN Guowu and WANG Chao |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China,Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China,Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai 201620, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the characteristics of different types of rainfall, the low-frequent synoptic map for forecasting model of heavy rainfall in different time period over Yangtze River Delta region was constructed. Based on the comprehensive analysis on the low-frequent characteristics of heavy rainfall over Yangtze River Delta region, the low-frequent cyclone and anticyclone were divided into 7 key zones. Then, the heavy rainfall forecasting model in extended period by Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis was established for the midsummer-early autumn period: Zone 1 or Zone 2 was maintained and developed by a low-frequent cyclone; Zone 6,7 or Zone 5 were provided by a low-frequent anticyclone. These five areas have become the main key areas and the above two low-frequency systems were prerequisites for the heavy rainfall. Low-frequency system in Zone 3 and 4 area played a secondary role, so Zone 3 and 4 were defined as a secondary key areas. The key areas played a decisive role in the forecast, while the minor key areas played a reference role. |
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| Keywords: | Heavy precipitation Extended-range weather forecast Low frequency weather system Empirical orthogonal function |
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