| 季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动对次季节-季节尺度大气可预报性的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡榕,李建平,侯兆禄.季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动对次季节-季节尺度大气可预报性的影响[J].热带气象学报,2024(1):85-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡榕 李建平 侯兆禄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心/物理海洋教育部重点实验室/海洋与大气学院/未来海洋学院，山东 青岛 266100；3.广东省气象台，广东 广州 510641;1. 中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心/物理海洋教育部重点实验室/海洋与大气学院/未来海洋学院，山东 青岛 266100；2. 青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室，山东 青岛 266237 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数和条件非线性局部Lyapunov指数定量估计了季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动（IPCO）和实时多变量Madden-Julian指数（RMM指数）可预报期限，量化了季节内IPCO对S2S尺度大气可预报性的贡献，深入研究了季节内IPCO演变下S2S尺度可预报期限空间分布的变化规律。结果表明：（1）与RMM指数相比，季节内IPCO指数可预报性更强，可预报期限达到31天左右，比RMM指数高出2周以上；（2）印度洋-西太平洋区域S2S尺度大气可预报性最强，可预报期限达到30天以上，其中季节内IPCO是该地区的主要可预报性来源之一，其贡献达到6天，占总可预报期限的25%以上；（3）随着季节内IPCO的演变，印度洋-西太平洋地区S2S尺度大气可预报性有空间结构变化，表现为可预报期限异常的传播和振荡。S2S尺度大气可预报期限正负异常沿季节内IPCO传播路径，一支以赤道中西印度洋为起点北传至印度半岛，一支向东传播，经过海洋性大陆到赤道西太平洋后向北传播，到达日本南部。同时，可预报性异常的传播在在东印度洋和西太平洋表现出反向变化的特征，形成东西两极振荡，当季节内IPCO向正位相发展时，东印度洋具有更强的可预报性，西太平洋具有更弱的可预报性，反之亦然。季节内IPCO的发展（衰退）可使东印度洋（西太平洋）S2S尺度大气可预报性更强，表明模式预报技巧对此具有更大的提升空间。
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| 关 键 词： | 季节内印度洋-西太平洋对流涛动（IPCO） S2S尺度可预报性 热带季节内振荡 非线性局部Lyapunov指数 |
Impact of the Intraseasonal Indo-west Pacific Convective Oscillation on Subseasonal-seasonal Atmospheric Predictability |
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| HU Rong,LI Jianping,HOU Zhaolu.Impact of the Intraseasonal Indo-west Pacific Convective Oscillation on Subseasonal-seasonal Atmospheric Predictability[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2024(1):85-100. |
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| Authors: | HU Rong LI Jianping HOU Zhaolu |
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| Abstract: | This work quantifies the contribution of seasonal IPCO to S2S atmospheric predictability by using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent to estimate the forecastable period of intraseasonal IPCO and RMM index, and investigates the variation pattern of the spatial distribution of S2S predictability limit under the evolution of intraseasonal IPCO. The results show that: (1) Compared with the RMM index, the intraseasonal IPCO index is more predictable, with predictability limit of about 31 days, which is more than 2 weeks higher than the RMM index. (2) The S2S atmospheric predictability is the strongest in the Indo-West Pacific, with predictability limit of more than 30 days, in which the intraseasonal IPCO is one of the main predictability sources in this region, with its contribution reaching more than 6 days. (3) With the evolution of intraseasonal IPCO, the S2S atmospheric predictability of the Indian Ocean western Pacific region has a spatial structure change, manifesting as the propagation and oscillation of predictability period anomalies. The S2S atmospheric predictability anomalies propagate along the intraseasonal IPCO paths, one starting from the equatorial western and central Indian Ocean northward to the Indian Peninsula, and one propagating eastward through the oceanic continents to the equatorial western Pacific Ocean and then northward to southern Japan. Meanwhile, the propagation of the predictability anomaly shows reverse variability in the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, forming an east-west polar oscillation. When the intraseasonal IPCO develops toward the positive phase, the eastern Indian Ocean has stronger predictability and the western Pacific Ocean has weaker predictability, and vice versa. The development (decline) of intraseasonal IPCO can make the S2S atmosphere in the East Indian Ocean (West Pacific) more predictable, and the model forecast skill has more room for improvement. |
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