| 基于时间序列分形的济南岩溶大泉动态研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 于苗,邢立亭,吴吉春,侯玉松,朱恒华,彭玉明,李罡.基于时间序列分形的济南岩溶大泉动态研究[J].地质学报,2020,94(8):2509-2519. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于苗 邢立亭 吴吉春 侯玉松 朱恒华 彭玉明 李罡 |
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| 作者单位： | 1) 济南大学水利与环境学院，济南，250022;2) 南京大学地球科学与工程学院，南京，210023;3) 山东省地质调查院，济南，250014;4) 山东省地矿工程勘察院，济南，250014;5) 济南轨道交通集团有限公司，济南，250101 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文为国家自然科学基金项目(编号41772257)、山东省高校院所创新团队项目（编号2018GXRC012）、济南大学博士基金项目（编号XBS1817、XBS1911）、济南城区四维地质环境可视化信息系统平台建设（编号2018GDCG01Z0301）、山东省重点研发计划(编号2019JZZY020105)联合资助的成果。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究岩溶大泉动态变化的影响机制，以济南泉域为例，根据2003年关闭地下水供水水源地以来趵突泉及黑虎泉的泉水位、泉域内降水量、地下水开采及人工补源资料，采用分形理论中时间序列分形维数法，计算各要素数据序列分维值及稳定性指数，结果表明:旬尺度下泉水位分维值大于月尺度下泉水位分维值；奥陶系灰岩分布区雨量站降水量分维值较小，但奥陶系灰岩降水入渗补给条件好，因此与泉群的水位波动关系更为密切。各泉水位影响因素中，人工补源因素的稳定性最差，极易受外界因素干扰发生改变。利用灰色关联度验证分析表明降水量、人工开采量、人工补源量与趵突泉泉水位的关联度分别为0. 858、0. 647、0. 667，与黑虎泉泉水位的关联度分别为0. 859、0. 646、0. 668；关联度总体排序为:降水量>人工补源量>人工开采量，说明2003年以来影响泉水位动态的首要因素是大气降水并非人工开采，即泉水动态主控因素发生转变。在分析了泉域资源量的演化基础上，对各影响因素的分维值与泉水位动态分维值进行回归分析认为，为保持泉水持续喷涌奥陶系灰岩分布区更适宜作为泉水人工补源地带。研究结果为济南岩溶大泉的保护提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 岩溶水 分形维数 灰色绝对关联度 趵突泉 稳定性指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/8/30 0:00:00 |
Study of large karst springs using the time series fractal method in Jinan |
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| YU Miao,XING Liting,WU Jichun,HOU Yusong,ZHU Henghu,PENG Yuming,LI Gang.Study of large karst springs using the time series fractal method in Jinan[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2020,94(8):2509-2519. |
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| Authors: | YU Miao XING Liting WU Jichun HOU Yusong ZHU Henghu PENG Yuming LI Gang |
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| Abstract: | This work aims to study the factors influencing dynamical changes in karst springs using Jinan area as an example. The study calculated the fractal dimension values and stability index of long term multivariate data using time series fractal method. The database included the monitoring data of spring water level, rainfall, groundwater exploitation and artificial recharge in the Baotu and Heihu springs since the closure of groundwater supply source in 2003. The results show that the fractal dimension values of spring water level on a ten day scale are larger than that of the spring water level on a monthly scale. The fractal dimension of precipitation at rainfall stations in Ordovician limestone distribution area is smaller, but better precipitation infiltration and recharge conditions result in a closer relationship to spring water level fluctuation. Among the factors influencing the spring water level, the stability of recharge factor is the worst as it is highly vulnerable to the interference from external factors.
The grey correlation degree was used to validate and analyze the degree of association between rainfall, artificial exploitation, artificial recharge with water level of the Baotu spring, which are 0. 858, 0. 647 and 0. 667 respectively, and the degree of association with water level of the Heihu spring are 0. 859, 0. 646 and 0. 668 respectively. The overall order of correlation degree is rainfall>artificial recharge>artificial exploitation, indicating that the atmospheric precipitation, not artificial exploitation, is the primary factor affecting spring water level dynamics since 2003. Based on the analysis of the evolution of spring resources, the regression analysis of fractal dimension and dynamic dimension of spring water level shows that the Ordovician limestone area is more suitable for artificial recharge of spring water. The results provide a reference for the protection of the Jinan karst spring. |
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| Keywords: | karst water fractal dimension gray absolute correlation Baotu spring stability index |
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