| 二维复合极值模型在暴雨多变量联合分布中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 任照环,倪长健,周书华.二维复合极值模型在暴雨多变量联合分布中的应用[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2014,29(3):302-307. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任照环 倪长健 周书华 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都,610225 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更好地描述暴雨多变量特征,构建以GPD为边缘分布的泊松-二维Copula复合极值模型,并将其应用于成都温江站暴雨雨量和暴雨雨峰的联合概率分布计算,研究表明该模型:理论联合频率与经验联合频率吻合较好,能用于暴雨联合分布的计算;考虑了暴雨过程出现的频次,增加了概率模型的物理内涵,选取独立的暴雨过程极大值作为样本,克服了GPD阈值选取的随意性;可以推广应用于连续分布为其他的Copula函数的情形,具有广泛的应用前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象学 气候统计 二维复合极值模型 多变量 暴雨 联合概率分布 |
Compound Bivariate Extreme Distribution and its Application in Multiple Variable Joint Distribution of Rainstorm |
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| Institution: | REN Zhao-huan,NI Chang-jian(The Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information and Technology,Chengdu 610225, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to better describe the multivariate characteristics of rainstorm,Poisson-Copula compound bivariate extreme distribution model is build with GPDs as the marginal distributions,and it is applied to the calculation of joint probability distribution of rainstorm peak and rainstorm amount,studies show that：The theoretical joint frequency is in good agreement with the empirical joint frequency,it shows that this model can be used for the calculation of the joint distribution of rainstorm.This probabilistic model takes into account the rainstorm frequency and its physical content.In addition,it can avoid the randomicity of the selection of GPD threshold by selecting the maximum of the independent rainstorm process as the samples.This model may also be applied to cases of other continuous distributions fit Copula functions,so it has broad application prospects. |
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| Keywords: | meteorology climatic statistics compound bivariate extreme distribution multivariate rainstorm joint probability distribution |
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