Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models |
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| Authors: | Florian Pappenberger Keith J Beven Marco Ratto Patrick Matgen |
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| Institution: | 1. Hydrology and Fluid Dynamics Group, Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK;2. Joint Research Centre, The European Commission, Ispra, Italy;3. Department of Environment and Agro-Biotechnologies, Public Research Centre Gabriel Lippmann, Luxembourg;4. Geocentrum, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | Global sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in understanding flood inundation models and deriving decisions on strategies to reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional flood inundation model (HEC-RAS) on the River Alzette, Luxembourg, is presented. It is impossible to define sensitivity in a unique way and different methods can lead to a difference in ranking of importance of model factors. In this paper five different methods (Sobol, Kullback–Leibler entropy, Morris, regionalised sensitivity analysis and regression) are applied and the outcomes on selected examples compared. It is demonstrated that the different methods lead to completely different ranking of importance of the parameter factors and that it is impossible to draw firm conclusions about the relative sensitivity of different factors. Moreover, the uncertainty inherent in the sensitivity methods is highlighted. |
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| Keywords: | Global sensitivity analysis Flood modelling Uncertainty Inundation model Decision support Flood risk |
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