| 山洪灾损预估方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶帮苹,冯汉中,周威.山洪灾损预估方法研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(3):82-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶帮苹 冯汉中 周威 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省气象台, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 2013-2015年山洪工程项目-山洪地质灾害气象预报与服务决策支撑系统建设 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了预估四川省的山洪灾害造成的人口和经济影响,本文基于四川省数字高程模型数据(DEM),依据山洪沟的判别标准,提取出全省范围的山洪沟,并结合坡度与降水耦合的关系建立了四川山洪危险性评价模型。以2011年1月~2013年12月发生的21次山洪灾害为样本,利用2013年四川省人口和经济数据,建立了山洪灾害对人口和经济影响的预估模型。结论如下:(1)提取出影响生命财产安全的山洪沟64346条,其主要分布在盆周山区、川西高原和攀西地区,最大影响面积约38万km2,约占全省面积的78%;(2)建立了山洪危险性评估模型,评估结果能客观地预警四川范围内的山洪等级和影响范围;(3)建立了山洪灾害影响预估模型,模型对人口的影响预估结果比较可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 山洪 危险性 预警 影响评估 GIS |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-07-03 |
Exploration of Pre-assessment Methods for Flash Floods Disaster Losses |
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| Institution: | 1. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to estimate the impact of population and economy of Sichuan by flash flood,this article based on Digital Elevation Model(DEM) of Sichuan and the judging criteria of flash flood ditch,extracted flash flood ditches of Sichuan Province. And then combined the relationship between slope and precipitation,this article established the Sichuan flash floods risk assessment model. With selected 21 flash floods hazard occurred from January 2011 to December 2013 as a sample data,this article used Sichuan demographic and economic dataes for multiple linear regression calculation of 2013 establish a model that assessment the impacted on the population and economic of flash flood. Get the following conclusion:(1) Extracted 64346 flash flood ditches that affected human life and property safety,which mainly distributed in the mountain around the Chengdu plain,the western plateau of Sichuan and Panxi Region. They affected an area of about 380,000 km2,which accounted for 78% of the area of the province.(2) Established flash floods risk evaluation models,the evaluation results could warn the risk level and region on flash flood.(3) Established forecast models that flash floods' influence,and the evaluations results of influence models on population were more reliable. |
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