| 基于集合预报的四类持续性灾害性天气中期概率预报应用技术分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张恒,肖天贵,金荣花,牛若芸,胥丁凡.基于集合预报的四类持续性灾害性天气中期概率预报应用技术分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2011(4):179-188. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张恒 肖天贵 金荣花 牛若芸 胥丁凡 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]四川省巴中市气象局,四川巴中636001 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局2010年小型业务基本建设项目基于集合预报的中期天气预报系统（二期）资助项目（910080001） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对4类持续性、灾害性天气，利用集合平均、离散度、概率以及盒须图等方法对T213集合预报的数据进行再加工，得到其中期概率预报，包括全国范围的持续性降水、南方春季持续低温（重度低温）、南方春季低温（重度低温）连阴雨、江淮梅雨。其结果表明：（1）对于全国范围内的持续性降水过程，各类图都能很好的反映集合预报中不同量级的降水预报在10天之内的落区变化以及持续情况，并与实况对应较好。（2）对于南方低温和低温连阴雨，集合平均、离散度和概率图都能明显的反映出实际天气过程和范围的变化。（3）对于江淮梅雨这5个指标站的盒须图，能明显看出各集合成员在15个集合成员中的相对位置，以及数据的分布情况。同时还能看出集合成员与集合平均数之间的关系。梅雨日概率图则能直观的反映出10天之内每天达到梅雨日标准的概率，更有利于判断梅雨天气．
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| 关 键 词： | 大气科学 延伸期预报 集合预报 持续性天气 灾害性天气 中期天气预报 概率预报 |
Research of Application Technology in Four Types Mediumterm Probabilistic Forcasts of Continuous and Severe Weather Based on The Ensemble Forcasting |
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| ZHANG Heng,XIAO Tian-gui,JIN Rong-hua,NIU Ruo-yun,XU Ding-fan.Research of Application Technology in Four Types Mediumterm Probabilistic Forcasts of Continuous and Severe Weather Based on The Ensemble Forcasting[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2011(4):179-188. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Heng XIAO Tian-gui JIN Rong-hua NIU Ruo-yun XU Ding-fan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Science, CUIT, Chengdu 610225, China; 2. National Center Meteorological, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Bazhong Meteorological Office of Sichuan province, Bazhong 636000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Using the assemble average, discrete degrees, probability and box-and-whisker plot methods, the data of T213 was processed to get the meadium term probability forcasts of four continuous and weather： Persistent rainfall across the country,continuous low temperature in Southern china in spring （Severe low temperature） and low tem- perature（Severe low temperature）and excessive rain in Southern china in spring and Meiyu seasons in Yangtze-Huaihe region. The results show that： （1） or nationwide persistent precipitation process, all kinds of graph well reflect the drop zone changes and sustained situation of the precipitation forecast in 10 days in the different order of magnitude, and the result corresponds well with the fact. （2）or low temperature and continuous cold rainy weather in Southern china in spring,the assemble average, discrete degrees and probability methods can well reflects the actual weather process and ~ope. （3）For Meiyu seasons in Yangtze-Huaihe region, the box-and-whisker plot of 5 index stations can well reflects that the relative position of each in 15 ensemble members, as well as data distribution. The box-and- whisker plot can also shows the relationship between the members and the assemble average, he robability lot can intuitively reflect the probability of meeting the Meiyu criteria in 10 days, more conducive to determine the Meiyu weather. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric science extended-range prediction ensemble forecast persistent weather severe weather mediumterm forecast probability prediction |
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