| 2011年地面入射太阳辐射变化及其与敏感因子回归分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 靳冰凌.2011年地面入射太阳辐射变化及其与敏感因子回归分析[J].河南气象,2014(2):74-79. |
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| 作者姓名： | 靳冰凌 |
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| 作者单位： | 鹤壁市气象局,河南鹤壁458030 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项“我国主要作物产量动态预报技术研究项目”（GYHY201206047）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 太阳辐射是地球上一切生命的源泉，亦是地球天气、气候系统发生发展和演变的能量来源。利用FY2E卫星遥感产品地面入射太阳辐射资料和地面常规观测资料，对2011年鹤壁市地面入射太阳辐射变化特征分析结果表明：鹤壁市2011年地面入射太阳辐射日曝辐量和月累积量的变化有明显的季节性，其年累积量为5721．38MJ·m^-2，日曝辐量3—4月增加迅速，其中3月份环比增长59％。地面入射太阳辐射总体变化趋势可以用一元多项式进行回归拟合，拟合曲线与实测资料的相关系数达0．8。地面最高温度与地面入射太阳辐射存在明显正相关，地面入射太阳辐射增大，地面最高温度就会升高。地面蒸发量对地面入射太阳辐射高度敏感，地面入射太阳辐射增大，地面蒸发量就会增大。通过对地面入射太阳辐射与地面敏感气象要素的多元回归分析发现，地面入射太阳辐射的二元线性回归预测水平高于一元线性回归预测水平。通过地面气象要素的多元线性回归预测，可估算地面入射太阳辐射值，这为相关研究及业务服务等提供了一种获取地面入射太阳辐射的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 地面入射太阳辐射 地面最高温度 地面蒸发量 回归分析 |
Surface Incident Solar Radiation Change and its Regression Analysis with Sensitive Factors in 2011 |
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| Jin Bingling.Surface Incident Solar Radiation Change and its Regression Analysis with Sensitive Factors in 2011[J].Meteorology Journal of Henan,2014(2):74-79. |
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| Authors: | Jin Bingling |
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| Institution: | Jin Bingling (Hebi Meteorological Office, Hebi 458030, China) |
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| Abstract: | Solar radiation is the source of all life on earth, and also the energy sources of earth＇ s weather and climate system development and evolution. Based on the surface incident solar radiation data of the remote sensing data of FY2E satellite and the surface conventional observation data, the variation characteristic of surface incident solar radiation in Hebi city in 2011 is analyzed. The results show that the surface incident solar radiation daily and monthly accumulation changes are obviously seasonal in Hebi city in 2011, its annual accumulation is 5721.38 MJ · m^-2, its daily accumulation increased rapidly from March to April, and its rose 59% in link relative ratio in March. The general trends of the surface incident solar radiation are regressed with an element polynomial. The correlation coefficient of fitting curve and observation data is 0.8. There is positive correlation obviously between surface highest temperature and surface incident solar radiation, the surface highest temperature increased when the surface incident solar radiation increased. The surface evaporation is sensitive to surface incident solar radiation, the surface evaporation increased when the surface incident solar radiation increased. The two elements linear regression prediction of surface incident solar radiation is better than that of an element linear regression prediction by multiple regression analysis of surface meteorological elements. Surface incident solar radiation is estimated by multiple regressions of surface meteorological elements, and provided a obtaining surface incident solar radiation method for correlation research and business service. |
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| Keywords: | surface incident solar radiation surface highest temperature surface evaporation regression analysis |
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